Around the Horn on Fins: What’s Working Now

A technical walkthrough of global banks, fintech, payments, private credit, crypto, and the setups driving what works and what lags.

Just some thoughts, none of this is financial advice, and if you want actual picks, they’re behind the wall.

Brazil and LatAm Stay Strong

Brazil and LatAm look strong across any timeframe. Full credit to Cluseau for catching the Argentina banks’ move early, with names like Grupo Galicia (GGAL) and others up big. The Brazilian ETF (EWZ) also looks strong. Two of my core names, StoneCo (STNE) and Nubank (NU), both look solid, as I broke down in my full Nubank analysis.

It is also worth noting that these have held up in the face of a stronger dollar. With warming relations between Argentina and, hopefully, Brazil, this pocket of EM remains worth owning. Fundamentals look impressive, and now the narrative is improving.

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European Banks: Still Strong but Losing Momentum

European banks still look strong, though momentum feels like it is topping out. The golden rate and credit environment that drove record EPS growth is now fading as cuts begin.

BFF Bank (BFF) crushed it and delivered roughly a 35–40% return since April. Barclays (BARC) and Deutsche Bank (DB) have been strong too. The large European money centers had the best environment in decades.

BNP Paribas (BNP) is entering the “I’m getting interested” zone as it technically looks broken after bad press. The challenge is valuation, still around 7x earnings despite a technical setup that suggests a date with the 200-week moving average.

Large-Cap U.S. Banks Look Technically Excellent

Large-cap banks, especially Citigroup (C), look technically strong across daily and weekly timeframes. This environment is built for them: strong capital markets activity, robust equity trading, and higher rates create clear tailwinds.

The lack of organic lending growth (non-NDFI) lingers in the background, but that is tomorrow’s problem. WFC, JPM, and BAC all look strong despite rich valuations. My call on C from October 2023 looks stunning in hindsight.

If you wanted to get cute (I don’t), the valuation-based play would be to short JPM against the cheaper C.

Private Equity and Private Credit: Sentiment Is Gone

As strong as the big bank charts look, private equity now trades under the 200-day like it is their permanent mailing address.

KKR (KKR), Apollo (APO), Ares (ARES), Blue Owl (OWL). Fundamentals are fine, but sentiment is shot. One of my biggest “misses” this year was not going heavier on the Long Large-Cap Banks & Short Alts theme.

The thesis remains intact. Biden-era regulations pushed banks away from marginal risk-taking, which private equity and private credit absorbed. As regulations ease, banks regain footing, and the relative advantage shrinks.

Counterpoint: They have massive dry powder, which remains true.

BDC’s: Do Not Be a Hero

BDC’s follow the same trend. No comment other than: don’t try to bottom-tick these. There is no reward for heroism here.

Payments Are Stuck Under the Weight of AI Capital Flows

Shift4 (FOUR) sits right near Munger’s “buy great companies at the 200-week moving average.” The question is whether it still qualifies as great.

PayPal (PYPL) lives at the same support line and continues to test investor patience. If you cannot rally on an OpenAI partnership, you may indeed be a value trap.

The entire payments sector has been tough. AI continues to vacuum capital from everywhere else like a black hole. If anyone has strong names here, I’m open to hearing them.

Consumer Finance Quietly Looks Excellent

These have not been top-of-mind, but consumer finance looks surprisingly solid.

Synchrony (SYF) and Capital One (COF) both look excellent on long-term charts. COF spends heavily on AI; if any bank turns data into dominance, it is them. SYF keeps shrinking the float and quietly compounding (credit to Colarion).

COF trades around 10x 2026 earnings and SYF ~8x 2026. Neither is expensive. The weight comes from recession fears and a “K-shaped economy” dynamic affecting lower-income cohorts.

Speculative Fintech: The Air is Leaving

In the more speculative fintech category, Sezzle (SEZL) completely unwound its pump from earlier this year. Someone on X told me the June/July move was “fundamental.” I should have shortened that comment on the spot.

Upstart (UPST) also looks ready to live below the 200-day moving average indefinitely. Mid-to-high-20% AI-driven debt consolidation loans are not what you want in a K-shaped environment.

Momo Financials: SOFI, DAVE, ARKF, PLTR

SoFi (SOFI) and Dave (DAVE) remain strong. Cathie Wood’s ARKF also looks strong. The mental gymnastics required to call these “Fintech” is impressive, but momentum is momentum, and momo is strong.

Shorting strength is tricky, although you could argue the sector is purely flows-driven.

And yes, somehow PLTR is a “Fintech” name now, no one knows why, including Cathie.

Robinhood, Coinbase, and the Prediction Market Wildcard

Robinhood (HOOD) is flattening. For followers, this is a triple from April. The question is forward revenue. They’ve added prediction markets (competing with Kalshi and Polymarket), and business appears strong. But I still wonder where regulators eventually land on the legality of “prediction markets.”

Coinbase (COIN) looks a touch weaker. This could be a decent short against a BTC long at some point, especially given the gap between crypto-broker stock performance and underlying crypto activity.

Crypto: BTC Needs Help

Ethereum (ETH) is marginally stronger than Bitcoin (BTC). But BTC does not look good. Bulls need a dip-buying wave.

BitMine Immersion (BMNR) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) may be accumulating again, or reflexivity may be out of rope. BTC is up only 9% YTD as of 11/5. The question: Who is the next buyer?

Chime and Circle: IPO Hype Meets Reality

I publicly said Chime (CHYM) and Circle (CRCL) were going to be shorts, and they were.

This is what hype-driven exit liquidity looks like. This is why I warn people not to blindly buy IPOs, especially when investment banks pump them.

CRCL could be a buy one day if crypto turns. But stretched valuations are not time to play hero. Let things resolve technically before timing dips.

Take a look at these charts and ask how excited the CHYM and CRCL IPO bagholders feel now.

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AI and Semiconductors: Pullback Needed, Trend Intact

AI and semiconductors finally got their needed pullback. Zoom out, and the weekly/monthly charts look exceptional. On social media, you’d think a 3% drawdown was 30%. A predictable shakeout.

Capex is not stopping. Unless we get a recession, they are expensive but supported by earnings. The sector remains a capital magnet.

Tread lightly in extended names, but a 10% pullback would likely be a buy.

Why Charts Matter

Why charts? I’m visual. But more importantly, Newton’s Law of Inertia reigns supreme everywhere.

Objects in motion tend to stay in motion.

Hope you all have a banger close to the year and a great November.

The best is ahead,

Victaurs