Surfing The Market Volatility: 10 Signals Worth Paying Attention To

Some waves for the vibes investor & a 14 day free trial if you're on the fence

Great morning friends.

I watched Point Break the other day, and it sent me down a rabbit hole, classic Bodhi wisdom, adrenaline-soaked surf scenes, and then into a big wave documentary that hit even deeper. There’s something about watching someone drop into a 80-foot wall of water with total commitment that sticks with you. It’s not just courage. It’s presence. Precision. Trust. Maybe insanity too.

And honestly, investing isn’t so different. You’re reading shifting conditions, trying to stay balanced, adjusting in real time. It’s not about brute force or trying to control the market. It’s about flow. Awareness. Letting go of what you can’t control, and moving with the current instead of fighting it.

You don’t get to pick the wave. But you do get to choose how you ride it. How prepared you are when it comes. How clear your mind is. How steady your stance is when the drop shows up out of nowhere.

So here’s me paddling out and sharing ten market waves I’m watching right now, what’s building beneath the surface, where I see the sets forming, and how I’m positioning to catch a dream ride like Bodhi in Point Break. Because remember, when it shifts, we need to act without fear.

“Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true.”

So let’s ride.

1. US tech snapped back hard, especially the MAG7.
   Yes, they got very expensive. But they’re still the biggest, baddest, most cash-generating stocks in the world. These companies can pivot on a dime and optimize cash flow faster than anyone. They can prop up their stock with massive buybacks. Just look at AAPL. US tech earnings are expected to grow just shy of 20 percent in 2025 and another 17 percent in 2026. Communication services, which includes GOOG and META, should grow around 12 and 14 percent in those years. Valuations got ahead of themselves, sure. But how do you not own these long term?

2. European financials have been ripping and maybe peaking.
   They earned it, with 20 percent-ish EPS growth in 2024. But in 2025, they’re projecting flat to negative growth before rebounding about 9 percent in 2026. That rebound isn’t guaranteed, especially with Eurozone GDP expected to barely break 1 percent. Eurozone markets overall trade around 13x forward earnings, with financials closer to 9x. Not expensive, but maybe already pricing in the low-growth reality. Industrials in Europe are trading around 17x. Hardly cheap. I’d tread lightly. Great 12-month run, but the next leg is unclear.

3. LATAM has been strong like bull.
   Mexico is up around 15 percent year-to-date. Brazil is up around 12 percent in local terms and 20 percent in USD. Currency cuts both ways. I remember NU getting hit hard by the dollar wrecking ball in Q4. That dynamic reversed a bit in Q1, and you’re already seeing it show up in results. Brazilian banks are hanging in, slowing a little, but still resilient. STNE and PAGS are finally getting the re-rate I thought they would. Tariffs have mostly spared LATAM so far. And in a world where the US needs Materials, this region looks well positioned.

4. The world still looks expensive, but not everywhere.
   Global equities trade around 17x forward earnings. The US is closer to 20x. The UK is around 12x. Japan sits near 10x. Eurozone around 13x. EM near 12x. The US looks priciest, but we also have the strongest companies, the best capital markets, and the most resilient consumers. Soft data like surveys and sentiment are squishy, but the hard data keeps coming through. Our tech firms still print cash. Our people still spend. Long term, I still think we outperform, especially if deregulation kicks in after the election.

5. US banks had a better quarter than expected.
   No major credit blowups. Margins held in line. Loan growth was where it should be. Regionals via KRX are trading around 9x forward. Big banks around 10x. That’s not demanding. To believe banks won’t go higher, you’d have to be forecasting a hard landing. My biggest concern is a lack of catalysts. That could change fast. If a Trump administration shifts from tariff talk to actual SLR relief, regulatory rollbacks, or targeted stimulus, that’s your ignition switch.

6. Gold has quietly become the safe-haven of choice for institutions.
   Central banks are buying it aggressively. It is no longer just a risk-off asset. It is starting to act like an anti-dollar, anti-hegemony asset. If tariffs keep rolling and global partners feel boxed out, the risk of USD reserve diversification grows. Selling US bonds and rotating into gold isn’t far-fetched. It’s already happening. The gold-to-silver ratio is stretched. Crypto has lagged this move, which tells me gold is still the central bank store of value. Crypto is the retail version. That distinction matters.

7. Asia is quietly teetering, even with the dollar cooling off.
   The Taiwan dollar is sliding. The Hong Kong dollar peg is under daily defense. The yen has collapsed. FX stress is bleeding through the system. Yes, the dollar has pulled back recently. But real US yields are still high, and capital is getting pulled away from Asia. This is the unwind of a crowded dollar carry trade, where investors borrowed cheap dollars and plowed into Asian assets. It worked, until it didn’t. This smells like 1997 in slow motion. China’s deflation loop adds more pressure. Unless we see FX stabilization or a policy pivot, Asia looks like a volatility engine, not a safe allocation.

8. I still think the US is the best long-term bet.
   We are expensive, but for good reason. No other economy has the innovation engine, capital depth, or consumer resilience we do. Valuations may compress, but earnings power is sticky. My bias is to stay overweight the US and barbell growth sectors like tech and healthcare with select cyclicals like banks and energy. There’s still money to be made here if you stay patient and positioned. One could argue if we can just get out of our own way, we’d be onward and upward.

9. I don’t own enough healthcare.
   It’s one of the quiet outperformers. Fundamentals are strong. The sector is growing earnings at about 19 percent in 2025 and another 10 percent in 2026. That’s rare. Demographics support the thesis. The 65+ population in the US will double by 2040. Most political risk seems priced in. Innovation continues. From GLP-1s to AI drug discovery, there’s a real flywheel here. I go back and forth on XBI, but long term, I think healthcare should be a core part of a portfolio.

10. We are entering the phase where vibes drive flows.
    Valuations matter, but only in context. Rates matter, but not in isolation. Sentiment and positioning are what really move markets now. Pay attention to what feels safe, what feels forgotten, and where capital is quietly coming back. Don’t just play defense. I’m heavy cash and up a good amount on the indexes. But even I worry if I’m going to miss the next rip upwards. The vibes have been “sell the rip” until just now. So keep your head on a swivel and pay attention to the vibes. The market waves that crash and crest next to you.

Zooming back out.

Remember, you don’t control the wave. You learn to ride it. The tide shifts. The current turns. The set rolls in fast. Your job isn’t to fight the ocean. It’s to read it, trust your position, and stay centered when the drop comes.

Gerry Lopez, one of the most stylish surfers to ever live, called it “attitude dancing.” That’s markets too. Grace under pressure. Calm in chaos. You don’t force it. You dance with what the ocean and the market give you. Pure. Vibes.

Laird Hamilton, who redefined what was possible on a wave, once said, “Make sure your worst enemy doesn’t live between your own two ears.” That’s the real edge. So keep your thoughts clean. Stay clear. We will adapt. We will win.

And Duke Kahanamoku, the father of modern surfing and a man whose joy in the water changed the world, said it best: “Out of the water, I am nothing.”

Without markets, I don’t know what I’d do. But being in the water, riding the waves we’re given, that’s a gift. One worth showing up for every single day.

The best is ahead,

Victaurs

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