Flows Are Turning Green In Brazil and Things Are Quietly Shifting for NU & STNE

Updates on Brazil, a few longs we've won on, and thoughts on adaptability.

The world is noisy.

Allegedly we have over 4,900 “digital interactions” daily. Whether that’s email notis, social media likes, texts from our family & friends, or bear doom posts on X the number is staggering. Amazing to think how we even get anything done (PS - turn your notis off it’s a game changer). But no matter what, I think we can all agree there is a lot of trash circling around fighting for a piece of our attention to monetize.

But …

There’s always a signal hiding in the noise. Always. And right now, for me, it’s coming out of Brazil. While everyone’s in America has been busy staring at CPI prints, wondering what the US downgrade means, or chasing “tariff off” beta, capital is quietly rotating into a market most investors wrote off two years ago.

Literally, while US investors have been flailining about scratching back to breakeven YTD, Brazil has calmly put up 20% YTD (same as NU) and STNE and PAGS (two of my premium calls from 3/22) have rallied 40% and 60% YTD. And dare I say, calmly and without drama.

This isn’t a hype piece. It’s a read on what’s actually happening: a messy but investable macro, a banking license that changes NU’s funding game, a StoneCo buyback that’s turning earnings into a weapon, and Z-score flows only the sharps are paying attention to.

If you want signal, it’s here. Premium members read on.